Workshop A – Market Forecasting for Orphan and Ultra-Orphan Drugs
April 20th , 9-12nn
Who is it for?
- Business development
- From start-ups: Chief business officer, Chief commercial officer
- At larger companies: VP or director level in same departments
What is the problem pharma faces that market forecasting can help resolve?
Market forecasting for orphan drugs faces special challenges, the rarity of the disease is often reflected in the rarity of reliable population data. This makes it difficult to quantify the market size, assess the value of an opportunity, or plan a commercial strategy.
What are the benefits of market forecasting?
A strong market forecast reduces uncertainty. This helps establish the value of your product or company, and guides your strategic commercial planning. Areas of uncertainty should be minimized, and the inevitable “unknowns” should be partitioned form the rest of the forecast. To achieve this, it is essential to both understand what data are available, and to provide a commercially-sound interpretation of those data. Finally, when you have a precise understanding of a forecast’s weaknesses, you can plan activities to generate the information you need.
What are the benefits of attending your workshop?
This workshop will share lessons learned from over a decade of market forecasting for orphan and ultra-orphan drugs, including:
- Common pitfalls of rare disease epidemiology and how to work around them.
- Effective analysis of published literature to help you avoid “surprises” when others find data that you may have missed.
- Interpretation of evidence to create a strong business case that still has room for upside.
- How to generate your own credible data when the existing literature is just too weak.
What are the topics you’re going to cover?
- Why we’re here: Unique challenges of orphan drug forecasting
- “Commercial epidemiology”: From patients to dollars—which factors matter? Epidemiology, natural history, treatable population, diagnosis, uptake, price
- Case studies, part 1: Quick examples of when the “expert consensus” is misleading or just plain wrong
- Case studies, part 2: Interpreting the literature and generating new data
- TENTATIVE: Guest speaker, George Milstein
- Quantifying the key market factors for your therapy: Resources you can use to fill in the blanks (published literature, physician surveys, insurance claims databases, etc.)
Sponsored by Lapidus Consulting